ABC Profit Questioned as 'Kingdom Hospital' Ratings Dip
Fri Mar 12, 1:40 PM ET
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Broadcaster ABC, battered by questions about how it would reverse a long-term ratings slump, took two more hits this week, as a financial analyst questioned its ability to meet its profit goals and its most important new show fell sharply in the ratings.
In a research note Thursday, CIBC World Markets analyst Michael Gallant estimated that ABC's ratings in the second half of the season were running about 15 percent below its guarantees to advertisers, putting the network on track to fall 9 percent short for the full season.
Those shortfalls, he said, would translate into $110 million in "makegoods," or free air time given to advertisers to compensate for ratings shortfalls.
That would mean an impact, Gallant said, of 3 cents per share on the bottom line of ABC parent the Walt Disney Co. in the March and June quarters.
He also said he expected ABC to end up $200 million to $250 million short of a goal to be breakeven in fiscal 2005.
Disney Chief Operating Officer Bob Iger, whose responsibilities include ABC, said this week that prime time has been "a real mess" since the collapse of "Who Wants to be a Millionaire" in 2000. But he said the network was still on track to crack a profit in fiscal 2005, thanks in part to cost cuts and new slates of successful comedies.
"They have made progress. Their investment in comedies is a good example of that," Iger said at an investment conference. "They have also fixed their cost structure and so that the prediction the network is going to be profitable in '05 is I think quite realistic."
Gallant's forecast came as the network saw a sharp drop in second-week ratings for "Stephen King's Kingdom Hospital," the Wednesday night drama ABC executives have touted as key to their strategy for this part of the season.
Settling into its regular 10 p.m. time slot after a two-hour series premiere the week prior, the show finished second in the hour among the key audience of adults ages 18 to 49, behind a repeat of "Law & Order" on NBC.
Its rating in that audience, prized by advertisers, fell by nearly 33 percent week over week, as total viewership fell sharply as well.
However, ABC said the show was best in its hour among adults ages 18 to 34 and was an improvement in most key categories over the programs it had shown in that slot this season. (Additional reporting by Peter Henderson)